Hyperbolic discounting refers “to the empirical finding that people generally prefer smaller, sooner payoffs to larger, later payoffs when the smaller payoffs would be imminent. However, when the same payoffs are both more distant in time, people tend to prefer the larger outcome, even though the time lag from the smaller to the larger would be the same as before.” [1]
Most of us continue to make choices that will be detrimental to our future, despite the fact that we know the implications of our decisions. This is called temporal myopia. “[T]emporal myopia causes clarity to decrease with distance.”[2] Instead of inspiring caution, our brains’ typical response to this uncertainty is to “sharply reduce the importance of the future in our decision-making” [3], an effect known as hyperbolic discounting. Consequences which occur at a later time, good or bad, tend to have a lot less impact on our choices the more distantly they fall in the future. This occurs even when one’s life is at stake.
Here is an example using money. If someone were to offer you the choice between $50 right now or $100 tomorrow, taking the $100 tomorrow would seem the clear choice. However, as the delay gap widens, the importance of the extra $50 quickly diminishes for most people, despite the constancy of the actual value. For instance, “confronted with a choice between $50 today or $100 one year from now, would you still wait for the $100? Statistically speaking, the vast majority will take the $50. But the pattern follows a hyperbola, so once a certain time threshold is crossed, the devaluing effect of time diminishes; for example, most will opt to take $100 in ten years over $50 in nine years.” [4]
In essence, hyperbolic discounting is the human tendency to prefer smaller payoffs now over larger payoffs later. This leads a person to largely disregard the future when it requires sacrifices in the present. This “tendency may be the bias behind our temporal short-sightedness, causing many people to make decisions which lead to short-term happiness and long-term disaster.” [5] This is one reason that heart patients continue to have trouble with destructive behaviors after a heart attack. The long-term gain, which is potentially a longer life, is not as important as the short-term payoff of a piece of chocolate-peanut butter cheesecake. The uncertainty of the future is overcome by the immediate satisfaction.
What does this have to do with the Gospel? Well, how is the Gospel often presented? If one accepts now, we can enjoy eternity at some later, unknown, and abstract point in time. This is a reasoned attempt at getting someone to accept the Gospel, yet the human brain is not wired to accept and adopt this supposition. It is logical. It makes sense. However, it is too abstract and too far ahead in time. We need to address the short-term impact of the Gospel message in concrete terms that the brain can process.
How would you change the focus of how you present the Gospel?
NOTES:
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperbolic_discounting
[2] http://www.damninteresting.com/hyperbolic-discounting
[3] Ibid.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Ibid.
