Global Conflict, Cyber Risk, and Trade Shocks

Why Security Tops the 2026 Worry List

A morning scroll tells the story.

A headline on Ukraine. Another on Gaza. A brief update from Sudan or Myanmar. A short video of missiles over the Red Sea. A note about a new ransomware attack that shuts down hospitals or a global brand. A graph showing tariffs, shipping delays, and higher prices.

Conflict and security risk feel close, even for people far from any front line.
For readers who lead teams, run businesses, preach sermons, or guide families, one question rises.

How unstable will the next few years become?

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2025 names state-based armed conflict as the most pressing immediate global risk for 2025, with nearly one quarter of surveyed experts ranking it as the top concern for the year ahead [1].

That judgement sits on hard numbers.

The Armed Conflict Survey 2025 highlights four conflicts alone, with reported fatalities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan, and Myanmar together above 140,000 in a recent period [2].

At the same time, cyber attacks and trade tensions spread the effects of conflict into every sector. Ransomware groups target critical infrastructure. New tariffs and shipping disruptions push costs higher and force supply chain changes [3][4][5][6][7].

Conflict is no longer an issue for diplomats alone. Conflict shapes budgets, hiring, technology plans, and family decisions.

This article looks at war and global security through five lenses: Economic, Political, Sociological, Psychological, and Leadership.

The goal is not prediction. The goal is a clearer field of vision and a grounded way to lead.

WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR

First, some baseline facts.

Forced displacement continues to rise.

• UNHCR reports 20.1 million new internal displacements due to conflict or violence in 2024, with more than 60 percent in a small number of countries [3].

• A related humanitarian overview notes that by mid-2024 one in 67 people worldwide lived in forced displacement, almost double the rate a decade earlier [3].

The intensity of some conflicts has increased.

• The Armed Conflict Survey 2025 records high fatality counts in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan, and Myanmar, with tens of thousands killed in each context in a recent year [2].

• A Reuters investigation into Sudan describes direct attacks on hospitals, staff, and patients, with more than 460 people killed in a single hospital massacre and over 12,900 incidents of violence against healthcare services worldwide from 2021 to 2025 [8].

Nuclear risk remains serious.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved the Doomsday Clock to 89 seconds to midnight in January 2025, the closest setting in its history, citing a worldwide nuclear arms race and rising geopolitical tension [4].

Cyber operations hit critical systems.

• A United States intelligence community report notes a 15 percent increase in reported ransomware attacks in 2024, after a 77 percent jump in 2023, and describes continued evolution of ransomware groups [5].

• Research cited in a 2025 report shows global ransomware attacks against critical sectors rose by 34 percent in 2025, with nearly half of incidents affecting manufacturing, healthcare, energy, transportation, and finance [6].

• A separate review highlights the People’s Republic of China as the most active and persistent cyber threat to United States government, private sector, and critical infrastructure networks [7].

Trade and shipping disruptions spread risk into the global economy.

• S&P Global describes “conditional globalization,” where more states use tariffs and industrial policy to protect domestic industries, with higher costs and more fragmented supply chains [9].

• UNCTAD warns that attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, combined with the war in Ukraine and climate-related constraints, create “unprecedented shipping disruptions” and higher freight costs [10].

• Analysis from Oxford Economics and supply chain firms links new tariffs and renewed Red Sea conflict to fresh pressure on United States supply chains in 2025 [6][11].

In short, conflict has three faces at once.

• Active wars with high casualties.

• Nuclear risk at a historic warning level.

• Cyber and economic pressure that reach daily life far from any firing line.

ECONOMIC LENS: THE PRICE OF DISRUPTION

Conflict changes prices, risk models, and investment choices.

Higher shipping costs.
Attacks on vessels near the Red Sea and the wider region reduce traffic through the Suez Canal. Ships reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Transit times lengthen. Fuel costs increase. Insurance premiums rise. UNCTAD notes large increases in container and tanker freight rates linked to these disruptions [10]. Those costs pass through to importers, then to consumers.

Tariffs and trade measures.
After recent elections and policy shifts, new tariffs affect a wide range of goods. Expert commentary from S&P Global and others describes more frequent use of trade barriers as tools of national security and industrial policy [9]. Supply chain managers move production. That move demands new capital and a tolerance for short-term disruption [11].

Energy and food security.
Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East influence oil, gas, and grain flows. UNCTAD and other observers point to changed routes for crude, refined products, and grain, with consequences for price volatility and for states that depend on imports [10].

For leaders in business or ministry, economic questions follow.

• How much buffer sits in current budgets?

• How resilient are suppliers?

• How much exposure exists to single shipping routes or single critical vendors?

Economic risk shifts from a distant macro story to a management task that demands regular review.